Many voters still undecided in Democratic gubernatorial race

Raven Mueller of Springfield, like so many Vermont voters this year, still can't decide who to support Tuesday in the Democratic primary for governor.

http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20100822/NEWS02/708229955

Published August 22, 2010 in the Rutland Herald

Many voters still undecided in Democratic gubernatorial race

By Daniel Barlow
Vermont Press Bureau

MONTPELIER — Raven Mueller is a full-time mom, part-time student and, lately, a part-time Vermont political junkie.

The 29-year-old Springfield resident has listened to the Vermont Public Radio debates, visited the websites of the candidates, read numerous newspaper articles about the race and asked her friends and family members about who they are supporting.

But she still can't decide who to support Tuesday in the Democratic primary for governor.

“This is a really important election for Vermont,” Mueller said during a phone interview last week. “For the first time in eight years we have a real chance to send a Democratic governor to the Statehouse. I wish it was easier to make a decision.”

Hundreds of thousands of dollars have been spent on campaign mailings and advertisements, there have been more than 60 forums and debates across the state and various groups and organizations have all announced their endorsements.

But no one has any idea who will emerge as the winner of the five-way primary.

Senate President Peter Shumlin, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, State Sen. Doug Racine, former State Sen. Matt Dunne and State Sen. Susan Bartlett have spent months zigzagging across the Green Mountain State to reach potential voters.

The last week before the election has had some dramatic moments: The latest fundraising numbers showed Markowtiz and Shumlin literally within a few dollars of each other in donations.

Meanwhile, Racine got endorsements from key leaders in the Vermont Progressive Party. And Dunne attacked Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, the sole Republican candidate for governor, on economic issues and for dining with President George W. Bush.

“I'm not sure if I'll decide who I'll vote for until I'm in the voting booth,” said Janet Wallstein of Newfane, a Democrat who appears on Markowitz's online list of supporters but has also given $250 to Shumlin's campaign. “There is a lot to like about the candidates.”

The Democratic race for the gubernatorial primary this year is “one of the most contested and wide-opened races in Vermont's history,” according to Eric Davis, a retired political science professor at Middlebury College.

The last time there were this many candidates in a Vermont primary was in 1988 when four Democrats ran for the U.S. House seat vacated by James Jeffords and in 1980 when six Republicans ran in the primary against then first-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy.

Davis said the large field of candidates offers options for voters, but also makes the decision more difficult. Some voters will decide based on campaign policies, he said, while others will look at voting records, endorsements, the money race and who might be able to beat Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie in the November election.

The high number of undecided voters in this race is probably why Vermont has seen only a small number of early votes cast, he added.

“I think there are a lot of people who will spend the next few days relistening to the debates, checking websites and coming to a decision over the weekend,” Davis said. “But there will probably be a significant number who don't decide until they enter the polls on Tuesday.”

Voter turnout will be another variable next week. Vermont has more than 450,000 registered voters, but turnout in the 2008 statewide primary was 30,000. With an open governor's seat this year, turnout might be higher, but most say it will only be between 40,000-50,000.

As a writer for the liberal Green Mountain Daily blog, Julie Waters of Westminster knows Vermont politics well. But she too has problems deciding on a candidate to support Tuesday – her support right now is torn between Shumlin, Racine and Dunne.

“I know that Bartlett is too conservative for me,” Waters said. “She's really intelligent and she would make a great member of an administration, but I wouldn't want her in a policy position.”

Waters said she hasn't heard Markowitz display a strong knowledge of the issues she cares about, such as expanding health care and early childhood education. She also said she agrees politically more with Racine and Dunne, but enjoys the charisma that Shumlin displays on the campaign trail.

“If this were only about policy, either Racine or Dunne would get my vote,” she said. “But I also want to support someone who can win in November and Shumlin seems to have a good chance to beat Dubie. He's got a streefighter sense to him.”

Grace Person, a Washington County resident who works for a business in Montpelier, is in a similar situation: She's stuck between Racine and Dunne. For her, Bartlett is too conservative, Markowitz is not well-versed in statewide issues and Shumlin has a jarring personality.

“I was really hoping that someone would shine through during the debates,” she said. “They helped me narrow down who I didn't like, but didn't help me decide who to support.”

Person's top issues probably aren't too different from many Vermonters: She's worried about the economy, environmental protection and pollution at Lake Champlain. She also wants a fighter, she said, someone who can promote the issues she cares about and not back down in the face of opposition.

“I want someone who gets things done,” she said. “I don't want a governor who pussyfoots around. They have to stay strong and not compromise their ideals.”

For Mueller, her choices have come down to Dunne, Shumlin and Markowitz. She said she heard some buzz about Racine, but didn't find him compelling in the debates she heard. She knows little about Bartlett — a candidate who has seemed to generate little excitement in the campaign.

She said she agrees with Shumlin on key issues such as education, health care and closing the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant. But she also sees Dunne as “a bright guy” who can bring new ideas and energy to the job. Markowitz, she added, comes across as really competant and with a clear vision for the state.

“With five of them in the race, there's just too many,” Mueller said. “If there were fewer candidates, I think this decision would be easier.”

“It might come down to Tuesday,” she added. “I might not make that decision until Tuesday.”